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USDOLLAR at Risk for Larger Correction- GBP Longs Favored Above 1.63

January 20, 2014

David Song

Talking Points: - Bearish USDOLLAR Divergence Remains in Focus During Holiday Trade - British Pound Poised for Higher High on Hawkish BoE Minutes , Jobless Claims Index Last High Low Daily Change (%) Daily Range (% of ATR) DJ-FXCM Dollar Index 10725.62 10750.56 10718.76 -0.14 78.23% USDOLLAR Daily Failure to Push Above Interim Resistance to Highlight Larger Correction Bearish Divergence in Relative Strength Index Favors Downside Interim Resistance: 10,753 (23.6 expansion) to 10,759 (61.8 retracement) Interim Support: 10,561 (100.0 extension)- Closing Basis Release GMT Expected Actual U.S. Market Closed for MLK Holiday The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar ) is struggling to hold its ground during the holiday trade, and the greenback may face a larger correction ahead of the Fed meeting on January 29 as the bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index continues to take shape. Beyond the technical developments, the 2014World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland may sway market sentiment as global policy makers are scheduled to speak throughout the event, and comments undermining the fundamental outlook for the world economy may foster a risk-off environment as Fed officials discuss another $10B reduction to its asset-purchase program. GBPUSD Daily Remains Bullish Above 1.6300; Topside RSI Break Favors 'Buy Dip' Strategy Interim Resistance: 1.6550 (78.6 expansion) to 1.6600 Pivot Interim Support: 1.6300 Pivot to 1.6310 (50.0 expansion) The dollar weakened across the board, led by a 0.30 percent rally in the Australian dollar , while the British Pound remains the laggard of the group, with the GBPUSD advancing 0.02 percent on the day. Nevertheless, the sterling could be coiling up for another run at the 1.6600 handle as we have the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes paired with U.K. Jobless Claims on tap for later this week, and a slew of positive developments should continue to foster a bullish outlook for the pound-dollar as Governor Mark Carney adopts a more hawkish tone for monetary policy. In turn, we will target the topside objectives as long as the GBPUSD holds above 1.6300, and the pair could be on its way for a higher high as price as well as the RSI maintains the bullish trend dating back to July.

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Source: DailyFx

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