News Column

Commodities: Gold, Silver May Decline on US CPI Pickup

January 16, 2014

David de Ferranti

Talking Points: Investor optimism supporting higher crude and copper prices Renewed pro-taper bets weighing on gold and silver demand Commodities looking to US CPI figures for further bearings Bullish investor sentiment helped support crude oil and copper prices during US trading hours as the market responded positively to the prospect of continued strong economic growth in the US. This came on the back of strong US corporate earnings and an upward revision to the World Bank's global growth forecast. The recovery seen in the energy space did not extend to the precious metals arena as an optimistic economic outlook also supports the continued withdrawal of Fed stimulus, which weighed on demand for gold and silver as fiat-money alternatives. The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index has shown retail traders have grown further net-long on gold from yesterday warning of some potential weakness for yellow metal. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS-Crude oil has found buying support just above the US$91 handle. A strong up day yesterday provided validation of the piercing line candlestick formation, which suggests further strength may be in store for the WTI contract. However, the 38.2% fib retracement level at 94.85 may slow additional gains for the commodity. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold is showing several bullish technical signals on the daily including a break of the descending trend channel and move above the 20 SMA. Selling pressure around the 1,256 is acting as near-term resistance and support rests at the 1,218 mark. SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Volatility remains subdued in silver as the precious metal continues to travel sideways between support at 18.86, and resistance at 20.48 (the 38.2% fib retracement level). Range trading strategies are favored while the commodity continues to drift sideways. COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - There are several mixed technical signals that don't provide a clear bias for copper on the daily. A piercing line formation above support at the 50% fib retracement level (3.273) has warned of a short-term bounce for the commodity. Yet as prices waver around the 20 SMA, the rate of change indicator is signaling momentum may be shifting to the downside and is giving a bearish signal.

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Source: DailyFx

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