The national activity index stayed in positive territory in February, with three of the four indicators showing a positive contribution, the Chicago Fed said Monday. Production indicators led the march from -0.49 percent in January to +0.44 percent in February.
The index's three-month moving average (PDF) dropped to 0.09 in February from 0.28 in January, the fourth time in a row it's been above zero. February's three-month average suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend, the Fed said, with limited inflation predicted over the coming year.
The average is taken from 85 economic indicators, with 58 of them making positive contributions in February and 27 making negative contributions. Indicators above 0.7 show a rising chance of sustained increasing inflation, while indicators under -0.7 show an increased chance of recession.
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