Britain's debt downgrade has been branded a "humiliating blow" to the country
that will hamper economic recovery, hit savers and lead to higher prices on
the High Street.
The downgrade came late on Friday night and has raised fresh concerns of
a "lost decade" for Britain's economy. It is expected to hit the markets on
Monday morning as City traders respond to the decision by debt rating agency
Moody's to cut Britain's gold-plated AAA grade.
City experts said many traders had already factored a downgrade into
prices but that the ripple effects would still be felt on Monday.
It could hit currency markets, affecting those planning foreign trips,
and may spread to other stocks such as consumer industries as the wider
ramifications are felt.
"The FTSE 100 is largely made up of multinationals so the impact there
may be limited. Traders will be looking to the FTSE 250 and beyond where the
impact may be greater," said Richard Hunter, an equity analyst at broker
Hargreaves Lansdown.
"However, the main effect will be in the currency markets and will pile
pressure on the already weak pound. Traditionally when that happens it is good
for exporters. But importing products becomes more expensive and that could
feed through to consumer prices over the next few months."
He said the cut by Moody's was widely anticipated but will be sobering
for the City because it confirms that a recovery is still distant.
Sir Martin Sorrell, chief executive of advertising giant WPP, said the
downgrade was "emblematic" and illustrated the problems facing the UK economy.
"I think it's a stark reminder of what we're going through, the shifts in
economic power away from Europe and how long it will take to get things
right," he said.
"The Lehman crisis and its forerunners were so serious it has already
taken five years to get where we are. We really do face a lost decade
economically."
But he insisted the Government should "hold its course" on its economic
recovery plan.
However, TUC General Secretary Frances O'Grady slammed the plan as
"completely in tatters." She urged Chancellor George Osborne to change course.
"This downgrade is a humiliating blow for a Chancellor who has staked his
reputation on the UK's triple A credit rating. The fact that economic
stagnation, rather than current borrowing levels, has caused this downgrade
proves that demand-sapping austerity is ultimately self-defeating," she said.
"The Chancellor needs to start prioritising growth and jobs over pleasing
ratings agencies."
Helen Dickinson, director general at the British Retail Consortium, said:
"What is key for the Government is to support hard-pressed consumers. Priority
should be given to both boosting confidence in the wider economy and easing
pressures on household budgets."
A spokesman for investment company Fidelity said the impact of losing the
rating is less severe amid widespread global economic weakness.
He said: "With only Germany and Canada now boasting an AAA rating, the
stigma of losing the top-notch rating is much reduced. When the US lost its
AAA its cost of borrowing actually fell as investors continued to see it as a
safe haven."
"However, the reasons for the downgrade -- persistently low growth and
the reduced ability to deal with any future economic shocks -- are likely to
weigh on the pound. It fell by a cent against the dollar on the news and is
likely to fall further. It might be worth getting your summer holiday foreign
currency now."
Chief economist Jeremy Cook at forex broker World First said the
re-rating was "overdue' and that the UK had been "living on borrowed time"
with its AAA rating.
"Last week these pressures intensified and sterling hit a 16-month low on
Wednesday after extremely gloomy contents of the Bank of England's Monetary
policy Committee minutes were revealed," he said.
Sterling was likely to remain weak in the long term but paradoxically the
announcement may bring short-term stability.
Cook said: "Moody's announcement has now eliminated one short-term
uncertainty. I wouldn't be surprised if sterling ended this week higher." But
he added: "For those travelling in the next week or two, it may help to
stagger forex purchases to reduce the risk of wild swings in sterling's
value."
There was some relief on mortgage rates with the Government's Funding For
Lending Scheme continuing to keep home loan costs down.
Ben Thompson at Legal & General's mortgage division said: "Markets have
expected this and there should not be much disruption. Cheap funds are at the
ready, so mortgage rates should continue to remain low."
Brian Dennehy, managing director at investment adviser FundExpert also
cast doubt on the effectiveness of the recovery strategy.
"The downgrade merely confirms what everyone has known for a long time --
the UK is fundamentally weak and austerity isn't working to get debt down," he
said.
"UK savers and investors must ensure they use this downgrade as a time
for reflection. The reality for savers is stagflation and deposit rates are
guaranteed to be negative in real terms, probably for years to come. The
impact on sterling is just beginning and it is a trend I believe will persist
for a year or two.
"But that creates opportunities for UK investors. At the most simple
level it gives a kicker to investments you hold overseas.
"But that doesn't have to be overseas stock markets. For example, simply
buying dollars will be effective. Some analysts, and we sympathise with them,
believe we will end up at parity with the dollar."
It seems savers may have to strive harder to make their money work with
the economic backdrop continuing to hamper the thrifty for some time to come.
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News Column
UK Downgrade Raises Specter of Lost Decade
Feb. 25, 2013
Neil Craven, Financial Mail on Sunday, London
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Source: (c)2013 Daily Mail (London) Distributed by MCT Information Services
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