Getting through a security checkpoint could be much harder, and getting off an airplane, if it is an international arrival, could also be difficult because customs and border agents will work fewer hours.
Airlines and airports across the United States are preparing for
the looming federal budget cuts as they would for a major storm,
with large numbers of flights cancelled and passengers stranded.
But they face those cuts, widely known as the sequester, with
much less certainty, because they do not know when the disruption
will start, how severe it will be or how long it will last.
Getting through a security checkpoint could be much harder, and
getting off an airplane, if it is an international arrival, could
also be difficult because customs and border agents will work fewer
hours.
And planes that push back from the gate may sit on the tarmac for
longer, because the Federal Aviation Administration has pledged that
if its ability to handle air traffic is reduced, it will maintain
safety by accepting fewer airplanes into the system -- the same
tactic it uses in bad weather or when facing other staffing
shortages.
That means that in places where airplanes normally follow each
other with a six- or seven-mile gap, they might be spaced by 10 or
20 miles, or up to 32 kilometers. And that will create serious
backups on the ground.
"It's going to be like perpetual bad weather," said Kevin
Mitchell, chairman of the Business Travel Coalition. "You're going
to have to look at this as if you're going out knowing there's a
storm."
The automatic budget cuts will begin taking effect on March 1,
barring some unexpected last-minute agreement between the White
House and Congress. They will be divided about evenly between the
military and domestic programs and are expected to lead to thousands
of government employees, from F.B.I. agents to teachers, being laid
off or temporarily furloughed.
Complicating air travel further, Homeland Security officials have
said that layoffs of security screeners at airports could lead to
waits of up to four hours for screening at major airports. The
Transportation Security Agency plans a hiring freeze beginning March
1 if the sequester takes place, and could furlough its 50,000
airport screeners for up to seven days, the officials have said.
And border crossings will be seriously affected by cutbacks
affecting Customs and Border agents.
But just when the cuts will begin to bite in earnest is not
clear. Some employees could be furloughed immediately.
But in the case of air traffic controllers, the union contract
with the controllers requires that they be given 30 days' notice,
and that notice cannot be given until the sequester starts, on March
1.
The sequester "will require indiscriminate spending reductions,"
Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said in a letter to Barbara
Mikulski, chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Mr. LaHood said that most of the F.A.A.'s 47,000 employees would
face a day of furlough per two-week pay period, meaning 10 percent
of the work force would be staying home on any given day; applied to
controllers, that could mean 1,500. In some areas, like New York,
problems could arise even in advance of furloughs, if overtime
budgets are cut.
So far the F.A.A. is saying very little about what it would do.
The National Air Traffic Controllers Union is preparing a study
correlating levels of furlough to reductions in the ability to
handle traffic.
"Everyone is frustrated with the lack of specific information,"
said Deborah McElroy, president of the Airports Council
International-North America. "Airports are looking at their
contingency plans, but the difficulty is, I don't know what I'm
planning for."
Many aviation executives were reluctant to be quoted by name for
fear of appearing to take sides in the dispute in Congress, but many
reflect frustration.
An executive of a major airline who is assigned to the New York
area pointed out that the problem approaches as the price of
gasoline is once again nearing $4 a gallon, or $1.05 a liter. And
that could mean that few forms of travel will be very attractive in
coming months.
