The U.S. government has set tough fuel economy standards for cars
and trucks, and Detroit's automakers couldn't be happier.
What mad world is this? The famously balky industry that once
swore people could never afford cars with crazy technology like air
bags has taken a leap of faith in its ability to invent and
innovate.
"They're aggressive standards, but the industry wouldn't have
bought in if they weren't achievable," said Chris Theodore,
engineering consultant and former Ford and Chrysler product
development chief. "They're embracing the standards because fuel
economy has become important to customers."
The new corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) and greenhouse gas
emissions limits will increase the U.S. vehicle fleet's fuel economy
by about 63 percent by the 2025 model year.
"Engineers love a challenge," Mark Reuss, president of GM North
America, told me last week. "Our people are very talented, and
they'll work vigorously to meet that challenge and improve fuel
economy as efficiently and cost-effectively as possible."
"I have no doubt that they'll answer the call," Ford CEO Alan
Mulally said recently describing the new rules on the "CBS Morning
News."
By Mark Phelan Detroit Free Press
They're "fantastic," he said. The government and automakers
"worked together to have regulations that are in line with what the
customers really want."
What gives?
"People will pay for fuel economy if it's done right," said Jim
Hall, managing director of 2953 Analytics. "American automakers have
learned the difference between selling fuel-efficient cars people
want and selling a car they'll only buy because it's cheap."
Automakers had more input to the regulations than ever, and the
government commissioned major cost and feasibility studies. The
government estimates meeting the regulations will cost $2,556 per
vehicle and save drivers more than double that in fuel. Automakers
don't dispute those figures.
"We tend to greatly underestimate the pace of innovation," said
Bill Visnic, Edmunds.com senior editor and analyst. "It's not
outlandish at all to expect cars rated at 40 to 50 mpg in combined
driving 10 years from now."
The technologies to meet the standards already exist, said Sandy
Stojkovski, president of Plymouth, Mich.-based consulting firm
Scenaria. She said meeting the standards may be much more expensive
than the government estimates, however.
Stojkovski said improvements in five areas will lead the way:
- Engine technologies like turbocharging and direct injection.
- Transmissions with more gears and dual-clutch technology.
- Mild hybrids and electrification of systems like climate
control.
- Full hybrids and a small number of plug-in hybrids and electric
vehicles.
- Advances in aerodynamics, lightweight materials, tires and
other areas.
The new regulations have a sliding scale. Smaller vehicles will
have to get higher mpg than bigger ones, and each automaker's
overall fleet target will be weighted to reflect its sales mix. That
means that Ford, which sells lots of trucks, will probably have a
less-demanding target than Honda or Hyundai, which sell mostly
smaller cars.
That has led some automakers to complain the rule favors the
traditional U.S. automakers, but the flipside is that big pickups
and SUVs will have to raise their fuel economy by about the same
proportion as compacts and subcompacts, potentially saving huge
amounts of fuel.
The size classes are defined by a vehicle's "footprint," its
wheelbase multiplied by its track. The fact that making a car
slightly larger can move it into a class with a less-demanding
mileage target could lead automakers to increase the size of some
vehicles, but Hall expects that to be more than offset by the
ambitious mpg targets.
Engineers' back-of-the-envelope rule for estimating window
sticker fuel economy is to subtract 20 percent to 30 percent from
unadjusted CAFE.
That works out to an average window sticker of 35-40 mpg in
combined city and highway driving in 2025, an increase of 50 percent
to 60 percent for everything from subcompacts to pickup trucks and
SUVs.
Detroit automakers' comfort with that goal reflects a
generational change since the industry was dragged kicking and
screaming into compliance with earlier CAFE standards.
Today's company leaders helped shape the rules. They're confident
they can play by them.
FINDING SAVINGS:
Automakers expect improvements in these areas to help them reach
the new fuel economy standards:
- Engine
- Transmission
- Mild electrification
- Hybrids
- Aerodynamics
- Lightweight materials
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News Column
Auto Industry Buys Into Cafe Rules
Feb 18, 2013
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