Though North Korea's nuclear test was deemed relatively small, it
could be potent if it is trying to miniaturize bombs to place atop
missiles. Truth is, not much is known about its nuclear programs.
As scientists and world leaders scrambled to judge the importance
of North Korea's claim that it had detonated a third nuclear bomb,
the main thing that quickly became evident was how little was known
about its increasingly advanced atomic and missile programs.
Even the best news about the test -- that it was small by world
standards -- could have a dangerous downside if the North's
statement that it is learning to miniaturize bombs is true. That
technology -- extremely difficult to master -- is crucial to being
able to load a weapon atop a long-range missile that might reach the
United States mainland.
"We don't know enough to nail it, but we can't rule out that
they've done something dangerous" said Ray E. Kidder, a scientist
who pioneered early nuclear warhead designs at the Livermore weapons
lab in California.
As is usual with tests by the secretive North, it was not even
clear if the underground test was nuclear, rather than conventional
bomb blasts meant to mimic an underground nuclear test. Experts
assume it was nuclear partly from the shape of its seismic signal
and because the blast was at the same mountainous site as two
earlier nuclear tests.
It also remains unclear whether the North used plutonium or
enriched uranium to fuel the bomb. U.S. officials believed that the
two most recent North Korean nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009, used
plutonium, and they fear a switch to uranium will allow the country
a faster and harder-to-detect path to a bigger arsenal. While
scientists are actively hunting for the airborne markers of a
uranium test, it is not certain that gases needed to make that
judgment escaped the test site.
Scientists said the relatively small size of the blast on Tuesday
calmed, at least temporarily, their worst fears: that the North's
recent references to more powerful hydrogen bombs indicated the
possibility that it might have at least enough technology to try to
test one. Those bombs, nicknamed city-busters, are roughly 1,000
times stronger than atom bombs, and if the North were to get them it
would represent an enormous leap in its known abilities. The first
American hydrogen bomb to be tested caused the Pacific island of
Elugelab to vanish in 1952.
What emerged most clearly Tuesday from sensitive global networks
that measure faint rumbles in the earth was that the underground
blast was most likely larger than past explosions by North Korea. In
Vienna, the preparatory commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-
Test-Ban Treaty Organization, which runs a global seismic network,
said the blast measured 5.0 in seismic magnitude. The U.S.
Geological Survey put its own estimate at 5.1 in magnitude.
Nuclear experts said the magnitude equaled an atomic blast of
about 6,000 tons of high explosive, or six kilotons. The first test
by Pyongyang is thought to have packed less than a kiloton of power
and was considered a partial failure by the West. The 2009 blast was
judged by U.S. intelligence officials to have a power of two
kilotons, though some experts outside the government say it might
have been as large as the test this week.
In any case, it was "a serious explosion," said Paul Richards, a
seismologist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades,
New York.
Still, even the largest estimates are small by world standards.
The first three nuclear tests of China, for instance, were measured
at 22 kilotons, 35 kilotons and 250 kilotons.
North Korea's tests "are limited in explosive power compared with
most previous ones," said Robert S. Norris, a senior fellow at the
Federation of American Scientists in Washington, and the author of
"Racing for the Bomb," a biography of Gen. Leslie R. Groves, the
Manhattan Project's military leader. Determining whether the test
was fueled by plutonium or uranium is critical because North Korea
in 2007 shut down its reactor that made plutonium, prompting
analysts to conclude that its supplies of the rare element are now
running low. Intelligence officials estimated it had enough fuel for
6 to 10 bombs.
But in 2010, the state revealed what appeared to be a fairly
advanced program to enrich uranium, which in theory could fuel many
bombs: experts believe North Korea has rich uranium deposits.
Siegfried S. Hecker, a former director of the Los Alamos weapons
lab in New Mexico who has repeatedly visited North Korea and learned
details of Pyongyang's nuclear program, has suggested that North
Korea may be ready to switch to a pure uranium approach, in part
because it might have a blueprint for a miniaturized uranium
warhead.
He said the North's leadership might have obtained the blueprint
from A.Q. Khan, the rogue Pakistani nuclear expert, a blueprint of
the type he gave Libya for a uranium bomb. It is well known that
North Korea obtained its centrifuge design for uranium enrichment
from Dr. Khan, and many experts say the Pakistani expert may have
thrown in the warhead blueprint as a sweetener.
Analysts say the uranium approach may also offer North Korea the
allure of a new secrecy. Centrifuge plants are much easier to hide
than reactors.
Finding out whether the bomb was fueled by plutonium, uranium or
a mix of the two materials could take some time or might never
happen, analysts say. Not all underground tests leak their explosive
residues into the atmosphere or surrounding waters, and some say
tests of the size of the blast Tuesday are probably strong enough to
seal any cracks in the rocks.
"If we get samples, I'm sure we'll learn a lot about it," Jay C.
Davis, a nuclear scientist who helped found a federal effort to
improve such analyses, said during an interview.
But if no bomb residue leaks, he added, the nature of the fuel
that North Korea used for its third blast may remain a mystery.
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News Column
Few Answers After Latest North Korea Blast
Feb. 15, 2013
William J. Broad
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Source: (C) 2013 International Herald Tribune. via ProQuest Information and Learning Company; All Rights Reserved
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