Moody's forecasts that Ukraine's GDP will fall 1.0% in 2013, and rise 1.5% in 2014, reads Moody's credit analysis of Ukraine . The agency predicts inflation in Ukraine at 0.8% in 2013, and 2.3% in 2014. Moody's estimates the hryvnia exchange rate at 8.3 UAH/USD by the end of 2013, and 8.5 UAH/USD by the end of 2014. Moreover, the agency supposes that Ukraine's current account of the balance of payments will be negative both in 2013 and 2014: minus 8.7% of GDP and minus 6.8% of GDP respectively. Ukraine's total public-sector debts, the agency estimates, will be 43.4% of GDP in 2013, and 48.8% of GDP in 2014. Last week, the S&P has lowered forecast of Ukraine's GDP growth from 1.5% to 1% in 2014, the agency has announced. The S&P has confirmed its previous forecast of Ukraine's GDP decline of 1% in 2013. The agency also worsened the forecast of Ukraine's GDP growth in 2015 from 3.5% to 2.5%, and in 2016 the forecast for the country's economy growth retained at 3.5%. The agency predicts nominal GDP at USD 181.0bn in 2013, USD 200.0bn in 2014, USD 226.0bn in 2015 and USD 262.0bn in 2016. Based on the agency's expectations of Russia's support, the S&P no longer expects a devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnia. The national currency is expected to stabilize against the U.S. dollar at the rate of UAH 8.2: USD 1 from end-2013. As a result, the agency forecasts weaker economic growth, lower inflation, and larger current account deficits--even accounting for the expected reduction in the gas import bill--through to 2016, the press release reads.
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