On the eve of their annual meetings in Washington D.C., the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank released projections on world economic performance. In contrast with recent years, there is a remarkable reversal in the projections for the advanced economies and for the so-called emerging market economies.
Even before the financial crisis, the emerging market economies were outperforming the advanced economies. However, for this year and next, the IMF projects growth in advanced economies will decrease almost 0.4 percent in 2013 and 0.2 percent in 2012.
Meanwhile, in emerging market economies the projected decrease is of around 0.4 percent in 2012 and more than 1 percent in 2013.
IMF staff has expressed concern that this time the slowdown in emerging market economies is not explained solely by cyclical changes in demand for exports or by domestic bottlenecks.
Three out of four BRICs -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- are slowing down simultaneously.
In China, growth is expected to continue at almost 8 percent until 2015, less than the spectacular rates of 10 percent of previous decades. Nonetheless, the World Bank estimates decreasing medium-term growth in China at less than 7 percent between 2016-2020, around 5 percent between 2021-2025 and almost 4 percent between 2026-2030.
Isaac Cohen is an international analyst and consultant, a commentator on economic and financial issues for CNN en Español TV and radio, and a former director, UNECLAC Washington Office.
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