News Column

Latin America: Slowdown Amid the Showdown

October 15, 2013

Isaac Cohen --

Pesos (file photo)

When the performances of the major Latin American and Caribbean economies coincide, the regional average moves in the same direction. The reason is Brazil and Mexico together contribute almost two-thirds to the region's output.

According to recently released projections by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the rates of growth of the Brazilian and the Mexican economies this year will slow down to 2.5 and 1.2 percent respectively.

For Brazil, this represents an improvement from the meager 0.9 percent growth of 2012, while the Mexican economy's lesser performance surprised, after the relatively strong 3.6 percent of 2012. Therefore, the regional average growth rate for this year is estimated by the IMF at 2.7 percent, the lowest in four years, while the World Bank estimates 2.5 percent.

Still, there are some mid-sized and smaller economies in Latin America that are expected to grow above the regional average, while the Caribbean isn't doing very well.

Panama stands out with almost 8 percent growth, together with Bolivia and Peru with almost 5.5 percent. In Central America, growth above the regional average is projected in Costa Rica, Guatemala and Nicaragua. Only Jamaica and Venezuela are expected to grow less than 1 percent in 2013.

The slowdown in Latin America and the Caribbean is the result of lower commodity prices and less capital inflows, caused by the decrease in Chinese demand for commodities and the anticipated changes in monetary policy in the U.S.


Isaac Cohen is an international analyst and consultant, a commentator on economic and financial issues for CNN en Español TV and radio, and a former director, UNECLAC Washington Office.

Source: (c) 2013. All rights reserved.

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