[ClickPress, Fri Oct 11 2013] The outlook for the Iranian consumer electronics improved following the US decision to lift restrictions on handset imports in May 2013, however the short term outlook continues to be soured by economic and political challenges. A further drag on sales growth comes from the actions of Iranian authorities to restrict access to internet content. While the market is challenging for vendors, it does have many attractive underlying features, such as a large population and low penetration of PCs and smartphones, meaning significant opportunities still exist for vendors. Meanwhile, sanctions have resulted in some positive developments, for instance the creation of a local manufacturing sector, which has the potential to achieve scale via servicing a population of 74mn. We believe the market lacks the technical expertise to launch products that rival major international brands and consumers have already demonstrated an ability to acquire devices from neighbouring markets, meaning demand levels for domestically produced devices are uncertain.
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Headline Expenditure Projections
* Computer Sales: US$4.7bn in 2013 to US$6.3bn by 2017; CAGR of 6.8% in US dollar terms over the forecast period. Low PC penetration means significant potential, but recent currency devaluations and US sanctions have put the market on a lower growth path.
* AV Sales: US$2.2bn in 2013 to US$2.8bn in 2017; CAGR of 5.3% over the forecast period. The recent launch of digital broadcasting offers opportunities, but demand is nevertheless likely to be weakest in this segment.
* Handset Sales: US$1.8bn in 2013 to US$2.5bn in 2017; CAGR of 9.1% over the forecast period. The handset market received a boost following the lifting of US handset import restrictions; however market growth will continue to be restricted by the slow development of 3G services by telecoms operators.
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