Apple's (AAPL) once-highflying shares haven't just come back down to earth.
They're now half-buried in the ground.
After announcing record profits but still disappointing many analysts
with this week's lackluster holiday-quarter earnings report, Apple stock
Thursday was dumped by so many people so quickly that the scramble tripped a
Nasdaq circuit breaker.
By the closing bell, Apple had lost 12.4 percent to close at $450.50,
down more than $63 from the previous close. That put the stock back to its
level from last January -- effectively erasing the entire year's gains that saw the shares run up to $700 by late September only to
come crashing down in the final weeks of the year. Apple has now lost more
than $225 billion in value since its peak, including a $5 billion loss
Thursday alone.
Many analysts couldn't lower their estimation of Apple fast enough, as 18
brokerages, including Barclays Capital and Credit Suisse, cut their price
targets on the stock by an average of $132.
There were plenty of reasons being bandied about for the stock's fall.
Some analysts worried that recent rumors of Apple cutting orders to suppliers
indicated a troublesome slump in demand for the popular but pricey iPhone,
Apple's center-stage revenue driver. Others were concerned by CEO Tim Cook's
remarks during Wednesday's conference call, when he indicated Apple would not
reconsider the iPhone's smaller 3.5- and 4-inch screen size at a time when
many fast-selling smartphones offer larger screens.
Jefferies analyst Peter Misek replied: "We think Apple is losing the
screen-size wars."
Misek, a top-rated analyst known for accurately predicting Apple
earnings, noted that many buyers were moving away from the iPhone-size screens
in favor of the five-inch display offered by rivals such as Samsung
Electronics and Nokia.
Some observers, however, felt investors were giving up on Apple way too
fast.
After all, the world's most valuable public company did report record
earnings, while managing to dodge a bullet with its profit number, slightly
beating earnings from a year earlier. And it shipped a record 47.8 million
iPhones in the December quarter, though this number lagged the average analyst
forecast of 50 million units.
Ben Bajarin, an analyst with Creative Strategies, blamed part of the
sell-off on the confusion many analysts felt about Apple's decision to change
the way it predicts future earnings. In the past, Apple would provide a single
and usually conservative earnings number, then turn around and blow that out
of the water at the subsequent earnings announcement. But on Wednesday's call,
after Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer announced Apple would now
provide an estimate ranging between two numbers, analysts seemed confounded.
And follow-up questions to Oppenheimer basically went unanswered.
"Apple's new policy on guidance has got people freaked out because
nobody's sure what it all means," Bajarin said. "I think it'll take a couple
of quarters for the street to know what to make of it. But this clearly has
them spooked."
Expectations heading into the results had been subdued by news of
possible production cutbacks, depressing a stock that hit an all-time intraday
high of $705.07 just four months ago after the launch of the iPhone 5. Since
then, Apple's shares have dropped 35 percent.
"To reaccelerate growth, Apple likely needs to launch new products, yet
few seem likely before June," Nomura's Stuart Jeffrey said.
But Bajarin said the market seems to have completely overblown things.
"It's personally shocking to me that Apple is now trading at such a low
price-to-earnings ratio," he said. "It's what you'd expect from a company
hanging on for its life, but we all know Apple will be there for the long
haul."
Reuters contributed to this report.
___
Distributed by MCT Information Services
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News Column
Investors Ponder Apple's Lackluster Earnings Report
Jan 25, 2013
Patrick May
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Source: (c) 2013 San Jose Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.)
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