The eurozone will remain in recession in 2013
with the currency area's economy contracting by 0.2 per cent this
year, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.
"Is Europe on the mend? I think the answer is yes and no," IMF
chief economist Olivier Blanchard said. "Something has to happen to
start growth."
IMF economists lowered their forecast by 0.4 percentage points
from October's projection of 0.2-per-cent growth for 2013 in the
crisis-plagued eurozone, which slipped into recession last year.
"The euro area continues to pose a large downside risk to the
global outlook," the Washington-based crisis lender said in a
quarterly update of its World Economic Outlook. "In particular, risks
of prolonged stagnation in the euro area as a whole will rise if the
momentum for reform is not maintained."
Euro area bailout recipients Greece, Portugal and Ireland, as well
as struggling economies including Spain and Italy, where governments
are trying to fix large budget deficits, must continue to push
through both fiscal and structural reforms, the IMF said.
Economic activity in the still-contracting eurozone periphery was
"even softer than expected, with some signs of stronger spillovers of
that weakness to the euro area core," the IMF said.
In 2014, the eurozone can expect to recover from the current
recession at a pace of 1 per cent.
The weaker economies on the eurozone periphery "must be supported
by the centre" through the European Union's firewalls along with
continued steps toward full banking union and budget integration, the
IMF update said.
Globally, growth will increase to 3.5 per cent this year, led
heavily by emerging and developing economies.
Eurostat, the European Union's statistics office, said Wednesday
that government debt in the 17-member eurozone crept up as the region
lurched into recession in the third quarter of 2012.
The average ratio of government debt to gross domestic product in
the bloc nudged up from 89.9 per cent to 90 per cent in the
July-September period. The debt ratio was up from 86.8 per cent a
year earlier despite moves by eurozone member states over the last 12
months to trim their debt-and-deficit levels.
Nations at the centre of the debt crisis posted the highest debt
levels, with debt hitting 152.6 per cent in Greece and 127.3 per cent
in Italy. The debt-to-GDP ratio in Portugal stood at 120.3 per cent
and 117 per cent in Ireland.
Spain's debt stood at 77.4 per cent, which was lower than many
other eurozone states including the region's two biggest
economies Germany and France.
The world's advanced economies as a group will grow by 1.4 per
cent in 2012, down 0.2 percentage points since the IMF's October
projection, due to the worsening outlook in Europe, the IMF said.
Global growth is "not enough to make a dent in the unemployment
rates" in rich countries, Blanchard said. Joblessness in advanced
economies is likely to continue to average around 8 per cent.
The United States is projected to expand by 2 per cent, speeding
up to 3-per-cent growth in 2014. Growth in 2012 "surprised on the
upside" in the US, reaching 2.3 per cent, the IMF said.
The US was able to dodge the worst of the so-called fiscal cliff
when the Congress passed legislation to avoid most of the scheduled
2013 tax hikes and postpone major spending cuts. Politically divided
Washington still needs to devise a medium-term solution to its debt
problems, the IMF urged.
Noting the policy progress made by politicians in the US and
Europe, where steps were taken last year toward a banking union to
enhance the stability of the financial system, Blanchard said: "We
may have avoided the cliffs, but we still face high mountains."
The IMF sees Japan quickly escaping its latest downturn, growing
1.2 per cent this year on the back of a large stimulus package and
slashed interest rates. But it has an increasingly pressing need for
medium-term deficit control and structural reforms to hike growth
potential, the IMF noted.
As a group, emerging and developing economies are forecast to
build on 2012's 5.1 per cent growth to 5.5 per cent this year.
"But weakness in advanced economies will weigh on external
demand," including through lower prices for commodity exporting
countries.
The IMF projected China to maintain around 8 per cent growth,
while India can expect expansion to pick up from 4.5 per cent last
year to 5.9 per cent in 2013.
The Middle East and North Africa can expect growth to slip from
last year's 5.2 per cent to 3.4 per cent, in part from easing energy
prices. Sub-Saharan African growth should quicken to 5.8 per cent, up
1 point from 2012.
Brazil, which was hampered last year by supply bottlenecks and
policy uncertainty, grew by 1 per cent in 2012 but should see a jump
to 3.5 per cent this year, the IMF said.
Most Popular Stories
- Fox, Twitter join in promotional partnership
- iPhone 6 'Appears' on Vodafone U.K. Store as '4G iPhone 6'
- Summer Movie Forecast: Biggest Box Office Season Yet for 3D Movies
- Fox, Twitter Team Up to Promote TV Shows, Sell Ads
- Boman Modine Launches Kickstarter Campaign for Film About Cystic Fibrosis
- One Hot Summer as Theater Season Opens
- Hispanics Wanted in STEM Careers
- Cinedigm and Universal Studios Home Entertainment Enter Into Multiyear Home Entertainment Distribution Relationship
- Oak Cliff Film Festival announces lineup
- Nikki Hill Brings Raw Energy to Roanoke
News-To-Go
Advertisement
Advertisement
News Column
Eurozone Will Stay in Recession in 2013
Jan. 24, 2013
Frank Fuhrig, dpa
Advertisement
Source: Copyright 2013 dpa Deutsche Presse-Agentur GmbH
Story Tools



