BOULDER, Colo., Jan. 10, 2013 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The 8th edition of Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, released today by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), indicates that the population of U.S. high school graduates is entering a period of modest decline after nearly two decades of sustained growth. In addition, the pool of future college students is rapidly growing more racially and ethnically diverse, putting pressure on policymakers and practitioners to address educational attainment gaps among many traditionally underrepresented populations.
"These two trends will define the 'new normal' for our colleges and universities--and will require those of us working in higher education to change the way we do business," says David Longanecker, president of WICHE, which published Knocking at the College Door, with support from ACT and the College Board. "Institutions will no longer be able to rely on growth in the number of traditional-aged students to boost funding. At the same time, the changing demographics of our high school graduating classes will mean greater demand for a college education from students we traditionally have not served well. Higher education must commit to finding innovative, cost-effective ways to prepare those students to succeed in our 21st century global economy."
Increasing the share of young people who enroll in and complete a postsecondary degree is critical for the United States, if our workforce is to remain competitive. For the higher education community that recruits, enrolls, and graduates those young people, understanding high school graduation trends is more important than ever. Here are some of Knocking's highlights.
High School Graduates: Past the Peak According to Knocking's projections, national high school graduate numbers peaked at 3.4 million in 2010-11 after 15 years of growth, then began a decline that will stabilize in 2013-14 at 3.2-3.3 million graduates. The next period of significant growth is projected to begin in 2020-21.
Changes in the number of high school graduates will vary considerably across the United States from 2008-09 through 2019-20. Many states in the South and West are projected to experience at least some growth, while numerous states across the Midwest and Northeast can expect declines. While growth states may struggle to find the resources and capacity to serve their students, states with dwindling numbers may face a very different problem: sustaining the infrastructure they've built up over many years. Our projections find that states can expect the following.
-- Dwindling production (losses of 15 percent or more): The District of Columbia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. -- Slowing production (losses of between 5 and 15 percent): Alaska, California, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. -- Manageable decline (losses of less than 5 percent): Arizona, Delaware, Indiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, Oregon, and West Virginia. -- Manageable growth (increases of less than 5 percent): Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, and Washington. -- Accelerated expansion (increases of between 5 and 15 percent): Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, Oklahoma, and Wyoming. -- Swift expansion (increases greater than 15 percent): Colorado, Texas, and Utah.
