This presidential race is not over.
Mitt Romney remains close in most swing states, though durable
polling deficits in Ohio and Virginia are enough to trouble even the
sleep of the just.
President Obama's job approval remains in the re-
election danger zone. But for Republicans pondering trends beyond
the next election, the most depressing news comes from New Mexico.
It is a state with the most popular Republican governor in America,
also the first and only Latina governor in America. Susana Martinez
recently recorded a 69 percent approval rating. Yet polls show
Romney behind Obama in New Mexico by five to 14 points. The Romney
campaign has essentially conceded the Land of Enchantment.
New Mexico has the largest proportion of Hispanic voters in the
country -- over 40 percent -- as well as the nation's highest
percentage below the poverty line. Yet President George W. Bush won
New Mexico (barely) in 2004 -- one of two states that flipped from
the Democratic to the Republican column. Now Romney is not close to
competing.
Bush's Hispanic outreach included support of comprehensive
immigration reform that included a difficult but feasible path to
citizenship. These symbols of respect earned Bush a hearing on
economic, social and educational policy, where Latino and Republican
priorities tend to coincide.
Romney chose a different path during the primaries. In an attempt
to allay conservative suspicions of his health care record, Romney
turned sharply rightward on immigration. He praised Arizona's
restrictive immigration law as a model for the country and
criticized Texas Gov. Rick Perry's support for in-state college
tuition benefits for the children of undocumented workers. If Romney
loses a tight election -- not a foregone conclusion -- his support
for "self-deportation" and ill-advised promise to veto the DREAM Act
may prove major contributing factors. Whatever the election's
outcome, these stands have complicated his electoral task in
Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and Florida.
In this case, the workings of political karma are particularly
cruel. Given persistent double-digit unemployment among Hispanics,
and Obama's cynical failure to push for immigration reform when he
enjoyed House and Senate Democratic majorities, Republicans should
have an opening with Latino voters.
But it is not a long-term political strategy for Republicans to
count on the low turnout of America's fastest-growing ethnic group.
The GOP is on the losing side of a demographic revolution. The
median age of Hispanics in America is 27.6. For non-Hispanic whites,
it is 42.3. About one in four American students entering
kindergarten comes from a Latino background. At the national level,
it will eventually not be possible to run up high-enough percentages
among white voters to counterbalance poor support among minorities.
What can Romney do? Even at this late date, marginal progress may
be possible. One recent battleground poll found some unexpected
openness to Romney among Hispanic men -- which could be an outlier
or an opportunity. At the Univision forum last week, Romney sought
to soften his edge on immigration policy, emphasizing his support
for a temporary workers program and permanent status for those who
serve in the military or earn advanced degrees. It would not be
pandering to announce a policy designed to boost Hispanic college
attendance and completion.
As political tasks go, this one isn't particularly hard --
pitching a message of economic growth, social mobility and social
conservatism to the Latino community. But it requires a recognition.
The Republican embrace of one portion of the conservative movement -
- immigration opponents -- will eventually deprive every other
element of conservatism (pro-defense, pro-life, pro-business) of
national influence.
