Politically, the August jobs numbers offered something for both
parties. The overall percentage of unemployed fell to 8.1 percent
from 8.3 percent in July. The White House can point to the
indubitable fact that the jobless rate fell.
Unfortunately, the reasons for the decline are not good, an
advantage for Republicans if they can explain them to a public
quickly bored by statistics. The rate fell because fewer people -
368,000 of them - were actively looking for work and thus weren't
counted in the jobless rate.
Worse, the economy added only 96,000 jobs, well below the number
needed to keep pace with population growth.
The private sector added 103,000 jobs, but these were offset by
steep drops in government employment and, surprisingly, in
manufacturing, which until now had been a bright spot.
There was other grim news buried in the numbers: Hourly pay
dipped by a penny in August to an average $23.52 an hour - but
labor-force participation dropped to 63.5 percent, the lowest in 31
years. And the government downgraded its estimates of jobs created
in July and August.
President Barack Obama faces two more jobless reports - one for
September and one for October - before the election.
Two wild cards could drastically affect the jobs picture between
now and then.
The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, removed one
of those threats last week by announcing a massive bond-buying
program in Europe. Even though it was done for reasons that have
nothing to do with U.S. politics, the Financial Times noted that it
"lowered the gravest of risks to Mr. Obama, a pre-election meltdown
in the eurozone that would have blown up banks, pulverized Wall
Street, and routed a fragile U.S. economy back into recession."
This week, the Federal Reserve will debate a third round of
quantitative easing, a massive bond-buying program of its own to
boost the U.S. economy and particularly the housing sector.
The crowds that will turn out to hear GOP presidential nominee
Mitt Romney and Obama don't care about bond buying in the eurozone
or quantitative easing by the Fed. They want to be reassured that,
sometime in the near future, the economy will have improved enough
so they can get a job if they want one.
The candidate who does that convincingly will be our next
president.
The release of Indiana unemployment figures lags a month behind
the release of national national figures. According to the most
recent figures, Indiana unemployment for July was 8.2 percent, up
from 8 percent in June. However, the number of jobs in Indiana in
July increased by 1.7 percent. National figures showed that Indiana
added 3,300 in July. An Indiana Department of Workforce Development
official noted that there appear to be inconsistencies in figures
provided to Indiana by the federal government.
Scott Sanders, commissioner of the Department of Workforce
Development said, "The numbers seem to indicate nearly 46,000
Hoosiers went from gainfully employed in May to missing from the
labor force in July, with no explanation."
