Three years after the Great Recession officially ended, Orange County and
California are still suffering from the hangover.
Incomes have yet to bounce back to pre-recession levels, according to
newly released census figures.
"This points to how bad this recession was," said Esmael Adibi, an
economics professor at Chapman University.
Median household income, the broadest measure of earning power, declined
during 2011, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey.
The median, the midpoint for the county's million households, was
$72,793, off 0.3 percent from 2010 and down 8.4 percent from the pre-recession
peak in 2007.
The statewide median, $57,287, was down 3.8 percent from 2010 and off
11.9 percent from 2007.
"The story on the income side is dismal," said Anil Puri, dean of the
Mihaylo College of Business and Economics at California State University
Fullerton. The downturn in income "explains the continued subdued spending on
housing and consumer spending."
"Inflation is still outpacing wage gains," said David Shulman, senior
economist at the Anderson Forecast at UCLA. He pointed to the growing
prevalence of part-time jobs and the increase of people on disability or
taking early retirement as factors driving down incomes.
The one bit of good news, Adibi said, is that we may finally be seeing
the bottom.
"We're creating a decent number of jobs," he said. That in turn should
create "a decent upward pressure" on incomes. Adibi pointed to increased
hiring in the health care, accounting and finance sectors.
"For the economy as a whole we should see much better numbers" in 2012,
he said.
But a comparison of the 2011 numbers with 2006 and 2007, before the
bottom fell out, makes for grim reading.
Since 2006, California has lost 200,000 middle-class households earning
between $30,000 and $100,000 a year. Meanwhile the number of households
earning less than $30,000 has grown by 180,000. And there are now 350,000 more
households earning over $100,000 annually than there were in 2006.
It's the same story in Orange County: erosion in the middle class with an
expansion at the bottom and the top of the income range.
Between 2006 and 2011, about 26,000 households left the
$35,000-to-$100,000 income bracket in Orange County. The low-income bracket
grew by 14,000 while the $100,000-plus bracket swelled by 34,000.
The economy has played favorites.
"The construction industry got hit very hard," Puri said. "They were
doing very well in the boom."
"You go from a well-paid construction worker making 80 or 100
(thousand)," Shulman said, "and all of a sudden you're making, if you're
lucky, 20 (thousand)."
But the past five years have been a very different story at the top. The
booming stock market has pushed thousands of households into prosperity, Puri
said.
Shulman said the expanding upper bracket is an old story: "People in
general on the high end have been doing better for the last three decades."
"But the middle group," Puri said, "is squeezed."
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News Column
Census: Household Income Still Below 2007 Level
Sept. 20, 2012
Ronald Campbell
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Source: (c)2012 The Orange County Register (Santa Ana, Calif.). Distributed by MCT Information Services
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