Can a campaign strategy work too well?
With the novel tactic of giving targeted help to the other side, Sen.
Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., got the opponent she wanted from the Aug. 7
Republican Senate primary. Congressman Todd Akin beat out two primary
opponents after McCaskill ran supposed "attack" ads against Akin that were
outright flattering in the eyes of conservatives.
But now, the very quality that made Akin such a perfect foil for
McCaskill -- his unapologetically far-right stance on just about everything --
has blown up his candidacy, and could yet drive him off the general election
ballot.
If that happens, McCaskill could quickly find herself facing a less
controversial opponent, one not tied to phrases like "legitimate rape."
Perhaps one even tougher than the also-rans from the primary.
And then she could quickly find herself once again designated as the most
vulnerable Senate Democrat in the nation.
"Obviously (Akin) is a very vulnerable candidate right now," noted Dave
Robertson, political science professor at the University of Missouri-St.
Louis. "It's going to be easier to beat him" than to beat any potential
replacement.
Which may explain why McCaskill was one of the few players in the Akin
drama defending his right to stay on the ballot.
Akin on Tuesday repeatedly vowed to remain on the Nov. 6 ballot, after
saying in a television interview aired Sunday that rape-induced pregnancy is
"really rare," because in "legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to
shut that whole thing down."
That notion, which isn't medically supported, has been used in some
corners of the anti-abortion movement to argue against rape exceptions to
anti-abortion laws.
Republicans, fearing Akin would cost them a chance to take down the
nation's weakest Senate Democrat, frantically called for him to take his name
off the ballot so the party can appoint a new candidate. But McCaskill
preached patience.
"It's not my place to decide. ... The people of Missouri have to make
this decision," McCaskill said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" Monday, hours after
the Akin story broke Sunday. To drive him from the ballot, she said, would be
a "radical" message to "the voters of the Republican primary."
While McCaskill condemned the substance of what Akin said, she added:
"They had a hotly contested three-way primary, and Todd Akin won by a
comfortable margin, and was supported by many very strongly. He has some
passionate supporters."
By Monday afternoon, talking with reporters at a campaign event in
Festus, McCaskill's tone was outright sympathetic.
"I take him at his word that he realized what he said was wrong," said
McCaskill. "I honestly do have sympathy for him. I think there are some big
people in the party that are trying to pull the rug out from underneath
Missouri voters."
It's standard practice in politics to stay silent when an opponent is
self-destructing, but to come to the opponent's defense is unusual.
"It should not be lost on anyone that some of the only voices not calling
for Congressman Akin to do the right thing and step aside are Claire McCaskill
and the leaders of the pro-abortion movement," the National Republican
Senatorial Committee said in a statement Tuesday. "Senator McCaskill knows
that the only way she wins re-election is if Todd Akin is her opponent in
November."
Akin has received some support from cultural conservatives, including
activist Phyllis Schlafly. But the overwhelming sentiment from state and
national leaders has been that he should leave the ballot.
Akin missed the first deadline for leaving the race on Tuesday, but not
the last one. Until Sept. 25, he can still exit the ballot by seeking a court
order.
Akin went into the Aug. 7 primaries facing two opponents, former Missouri
Treasurer Sarah Steelman and businessman John Brunner, both of whom were
better-funded than Akin and considered more electable in a general election
because of Akin's conservative views. A Post-Dispatch poll at one point had
Akin trailing both.
McCaskill, who faced no opponent in her own primary, took the unusual
step of nosing into the GOP primary, running ads against all three candidates.
Her ads against Brunner and Steelman were classic attack ads, but the ones
against Akin raised eyebrows.
One TV ad showed Akin sitting in front of an American flag, talking with
constituents and looking serious, as a narrator declares him "Missouri's true
conservative." Akin is "the most conservative congressman in Missouri," said
the narrator. He's "a crusader against bigger government" and has a
"pro-family agenda."
Although McCaskill hasn't acknowledged it, the point was clear. Politico,
the online political website, called the strategy "a blatant appeal to devoted
conservatives who decide GOP primary contests." After Akin won the primary,
the website announced: "McCaskill gets her opponent."
On the "Morning Joe" appearance Monday, host Joe Scarborough made
reference to that dynamic after McCaskill said it wasn't her place to tell
Akin to leave the race. "Senator, you say it's not your place, but you did get
involved in the primary yourself, because you wanted Todd Akin to win, right?"
Scarborough asked.
McCaskill responded that her goal was merely to "try to point out to the
independent voters of Missouri that his positions were so far out of the
mainstream."
Robertson, the UMSL political science professor, said a strategy of
helping Akin get the nomination would be a logical one in any case, because of
Akin's long-standing and often controversial conservatism. "You didn't have to
know he was going to implode so spectacularly to know he had a record in
Congress that was going to be a problem" in a statewide Senate race.
Robertson added that, even if Akin does step down and is replaced by a
stronger candidate, McCaskill doesn't necessary go back to square one.
"They (the GOP) would be at a tremendous disadvantage if they get into it
in late September" in terms of organization and fundraising, he said. "And
there's a lot of people in the base of the Republican Party who admired Akin's
social conservativism and might not come out" to vote in the general election
if he is not on the ballot.
