HispanicBusiness

For the third consecutive year, the U.S. economy is turning upward at the end of the summer, after a slowdown in the first half of the year. Several signs of an improving outlook have been registered, leading to the conclusion that the U.S. economy will confirm again this yearly pattern of mixed performance.

After an average monthly job creation of 75,000 between April and June, 163,000 new jobs were created in July. True, unemployment increased to 8.3 percent, but the declining trend in job creation ceased. Retail sales increased in July, while exports also increased, despite slower growth in Asia and the recession in the eurozone. Also, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index improved in August to 73.6 percent, from 72.3 percent in July. Perhaps the most perplexing is the six-week stock market rally, with U.S. stocks approaching levels not seen in almost five years.

On a yearly basis, the picture is more consistent. For the last three years, there has been average monthly job creation of 150,000, economic growth of around 2 percent and inflation also close to 2 percent. This performance is indicative of a slow recovery. But, as described by Dave Altig, research director at the Atlanta Federal Reserve, it is consistent with the central bank's dual mandate of maximum employment with price stability.

Isaac Cohen is an international analyst and consultant, a commentator on economic and financial issues for CNN en Español TV and radio, and a former director at UNECLAC Washington Office.