In a state President Obama needs to win, the incumbent should be
pleased by the sales report from Tom Sarach's staffing firm in southeast
Virginia.
"Last year was a record year," said Sarach, president of Reliance
Staffing, which has four offices in the Hampton Roads area. "This year we're
doing even better."
The growing demand for Sarach's temporary workers helps explains
Virginia's 5.7 percent unemployment rate, far below the national average of
8.3 percent. Home to a large chunk of the federal bureaucracy, Virginia's
relatively strong labor market helps explain Obama's narrow lead in Virginia
as the national economy recovers at the slowest pace since the 1930s.
"What's making Obama much more competitive here is the economy," said
University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, the leading political
guru in a state seen as a prime battleground in the 2012 election. "If you
have economic conditions in Virginia that are this good and he can't win, how
can he win elsewhere?"
With polls tight and the national recovery limping along, state economies
could provide the difference in Mitt Romney's bid to unseat President Obama.
While the U.S. unemployment rate gets the most attention from commentators and
candidates, it's the state-level data that best reflect what voters face on a
daily basis.
To get a more nuanced look at the economy's role in the presidential
election, The Miami Herald analyzed eight economic indicators for the 14
states where polls are the closest. The exercise was designed to roughly
answer the question Ronald Reagan made famous in 1980 when unseating another
Democratic president battling a battered economy. "Are you better off than you
were four years ago?"
No swing state could honestly answer yes to that question -- none have
seen hiring return to where it was in 2008. But some clearly have done better
than others, and the bulk of them are outpacing the country in some key
metrics.
Ten have lower unemployment rates than the current national average,
which hit 8.3 percent in July. The federal labor agency will release
state-level unemployment reports for July on Friday. Only three swing states
saw their unemployment rates increase more than the nation's did during the
last four years.
Eleven have lower foreclosure rates than the nation, and eight have seen
stronger property values than the national average since 2008. And since the
end of 2008, eight swing states have watched their economic growth outpace the
nation's.
"If the economies in the swing states were doing worse," Sabato said, "I
would say Obama would be cooked."
Not all of the numbers are rosy for swing states, and none show a truly
healthy economy compared to where they stood before the recession. Only two
are adding jobs at a faster rate than are employers nationwide. Using a
Federal Reserve index of economic output, only three saw growth pick up at a
faster pace than the national average this year.
On one end of the swing-state economic spectrum are two clear stand-outs:
Virginia and Iowa.
For Iowa, the latest unemployment rate of 5.2 percent is even lower than
Virginia's, and just a point higher than where it was in November 2006. But
the standout statistic comes from the housing market.
A home-price index tracked by the Federal Housing Finance Administration
