Fox News' Sean Hannity sounds beside himself. Reuters seems pretty sure. Same
with NBC Nightly News.
They all appear to believe that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio isn't at the top
of the unofficial shortlist to be Mitt Romney's vice presidential running mate. That is,
Rubio isn't on the shorter list of running mates.
"Why do I keep hearing they're not going to pick Rubio?" Hannity asked
with some sense of frustration Monday night on his show. "I want Rubio ...
with everybody else."
Well, not quite.
Rubio hasn't really endeared himself to Mitt Romney. Sure, Rubio helped
scuttle Newt Gingrich's campaign, which Gingrich was busily scuttling anyway
this January, by chiding the Republican for sounding like a Democrat over
immigration.
And Rubio gave a pretty tepid and late endorsement of Romney on Hannity's
show well after the Florida primary.
Compare Rubio's cool approach with the full-throated endorsement and help
of former Minn. Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who is a Romney campaign co-chair. An ounce
of loyalty goes a long way in campaigns. Similarly, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman --
who hails from a key swing state -- has aggressively campaigned with Romney
and, apparently, for a shot as the No. 2 Republican on the ticket.
Rubio hasn't. He has spent more time recently plugging his top-selling
political autobiography, An American Son, and less time talking about Romney.
Romney's campaign says no decision has been made and that those who would
know aren't telling. Rubio has pointedly refused to discuss the job.
Also, Romney cares about Beltway groupthink. And many in the Beltway
media have judged that Rubio's a little too risky of a pick for his
questionable spending with a Republican Party of Florida credit card years ago
and his handling of the state budget as Florida House Speaker from 2007-2008.
Reuters' Washington bureau reported Tuesday that Pawlenty, Portman and
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal topped Romney's list. NBC added South Dakota Sen.
John Thune and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan to the mix.
No Rubio.
The absence of Rubio follows stories last month by ABC News, the
Washington Post and the New York Times that reported Rubio didn't even make
the original shortlist. Romney himself had to deny it after a day of getting
knocked off message, but chances are some higher ups in the Romney campaign
were floating trial balloons that the right shot down.
There's also a chance Romney, dissed repeatedly by the Republican right,
might be inclined to pick Rubio in inverse proportion to the howls of the
right.
"I love Rubio," conservative columnist Cal Thomas said Monday on
Hannity's show. "I think he's got everything."
That might just be the problem.
Beyond Rubio's potential baggage, there's a matter of chemistry. There
doesn't seem to be a good connection between him and Romney.
Romney made his large fortune in the private sector. Rubio, more of a
career politician, got relatively rich while in office as he climbed the ranks
at influential law firms while ascending the ranks of the Florida House. But
he didn't become wealthy enough to retire his college debts, though American
Son might take care of that.
Romney might not care about any knocks on Rubio if the senator shows he
can deliver Florida. But the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald, Tampa Bay
Times/Bay News 9 poll suggests Romney could win the Sunshine State without
Rubio.
Romney is essentially tied with President Obama, who tops him by a spread
of 46-45 percent. With Rubio on the ticket, the numbers reverse with Romney
garnering 46 percent and Obama 45 percent.
Either way, the theoretical lead of each candidate is well within the
poll's 3.5 percent error margin.
Rubio seems to help -- especially with Florida Hispanics, whose support
flips 8 points in the Republicans' favor with Rubio on the ticket. Obama goes
from winning Hispanics over Romney 49-42 percent to essentially losing them by
a 43-44 percent. However, because of the relatively small sample size of
Hispanic voters, these numbers are subject to relatively large fluctuations.
Still, Rubio appears to do no harm in Florida, and it's really not clear
how the other guys would be any better in a must-win state that Rubio won with
almost half the vote in a three-way race. And Democrats seem scared of Rubio,
whom they appear to have bashed more than the other shortlisters.
"We need Florida. We can't win without Florida," conservative Noelle
Nikpour chimed in agreement with Thomas and Hannity on Monday. "We've gotta
have Florida. And that's Rubio."
Perhaps. Perhaps not. But if Rubio doesn't get picked and Romney
subsequently loses Florida by a close margin, the I-told-you-sos will rain
down on Romney.
