News Column

Greece Headed Back to Polls

June 14, 2012

By Nikolia Apostolou

Angry and despairing Greek voters head to the polls Sunday for the second election in six weeks, a make-or-break poll that may decide Greece's economic future and whether it remains in the eurozone.

"I'm going to vote the same party again, (leftist coalition) Syriza, in order to see something different, because otherwise nothing will change," said Dimitris Avgerinos, 37, a farmer from Korinthos.

Voters dealt a heavy blow to the ruling coalition May 6 as they flocked to fringe parties that oppose the budget cuts demanded by European finance ministers in return for help paying off Greece's massive debt.

Because no party won enough seats in the Parliament to form a government, elections are being held Sunday to see whether the outcome changes the results. Polls indicate the anti-austerity fringe parties may prevail.

The leader of Syriza, Alexis Tsipras, 37, has not backed off his threat to call a halt to budget cuts he says are leading the country toward collapse.

Analysts said that could lead to Greece defaulting on its debts and prompt the country's eviction from the eurozone, the 17 nations that use the euro as currency.

"That in some ways is the most likely outcome, and the most dangerous outcome, because uncertainty and political instability are themselves capable of triggering a Greek exit there might be a run of the banks and there might be acute economic instability as a result," said Costas Lapavitsas, a professor of economics at the University of London, speaking from Athens.

Syriza says Greece wants to remain in the eurozone but not if it means hacking away at generous public benefits and jobs. The New Democracy party, which had ruled Greece off and on with Socialist PASOK for the past 40 years, has agreed to the severe cuts demanded by eurozone leaders.

According to newspaper polls June 4, Syriza had 31.5% of the vote, and New Democracy was at 25.5%.

Some analysts warn that a Greek exit from the euro would be catastrophic. "It would take Greece back decades, and in humanitarian terms, it would take it back to just after the Second World War, and that's no exaggeration, but it won't be any better for the European Union," said Roman Gerodimos, senior lecturer at Bournemouth University in the United Kingdom. "I know banks and the EU have been drawing up contingency plans, but it's not so much about logistics as a matter of symbolism and substance -- it will be an indication of Europe disintegrating."

Others said that whatever the result of the vote Sunday, it is likely that Greece will have to leave the eurozone and either return to its former currency, the drachma, or a Greek version of the euro.

"Greece should have been out of the monetary union two years ago, but it's been delayed," Lapavitsas said. "It would be a shock. The economy is already weak, so it would be weakened more. It will be a storm, but a storm that can be handled, and then in the medium- to long-term outcome, it would be positive."

Greece is in its fifth year of economic depression, and unemployment figures in March hit 21.9%. Medical supplies and hospital beds are running low, and there has been talk of rationing electricity.

If Greece leaves the eurozone, there would be a devaluation of its remaining currency, which could be as high as 50%.

Eurozone leaders will watch anxiously as Greek voters cast their ballots in an election that analysts say could change the face of the European Union as a whole.

"There has been a culture shift in attitude to Europe," said Kevin Featherstone, head of the European Institute and director of contemporary Greek studies at the London School of Economics.

"Previously, Europe was synonymous in Greece with the idea of modernization and a future that was progressive," he said. "With Europe's actions in Greece, it risks a different kind of contagion with other peripheral countries such as Spain and elsewhere, who have come to see Europe no longer as a friend of the future, but something which comes threatening and shaking that which we hold dear."

Whatever happens, Greeks say they will survive and soldier on.

"Greeks are tough people; they've been through a lot," said Eleni Dimaka, who works for the municipal police. "It's good if we press restart. We need to try harder, all of us."



Source: Copyright USA TODAY 2012


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