The scenario raises fears among top U.S. planners that it may be
impossible to prevent U.S. involvement in any escalating
confrontation between Israel and Iran.
A classified war simulation held this month to assess the
repercussions of an Israeli attack on Iran forecasts that the strike
would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United
States and leave hundreds of Americans dead, according to U.S.
officials.
The officials said the so-called war game was not designed as a
rehearsal for U.S. military action, and they emphasized that the
exercise's results were not the only possible outcome of a real-
world conflict.
But the game has raised fears among top U.S. planners that it may
be impossible to preclude U.S. involvement in any escalating
confrontation with Iran, the officials said. In the debate among
policy makers over the consequences of any Israeli attack, that
reaction may give stronger voice to those in the White House,
Pentagon and intelligence community who have warned that a strike
could prove perilous for the United States.
The results of the war game were particularly troubling to Gen.
James N. Mattis, who commands all U.S. forces in the Middle East,
the Gulf and Central Asia, according to officials who either
participated in the Central Command exercise or who were briefed on
the results and spoke on the condition of anonymity because of its
classified nature. When the exercise had concluded earlier this
month, according to the officials, General Mattis told aides that an
Israeli first strike would be likely to have dire consequences
across the region and for U.S. forces there.
The two-week war game, called Internal Look, played out a
narrative in which the United States found it was pulled into the
conflict after Iranian missiles struck a navy warship in the Gulf,
killing about 200 Americans, according to officials with knowledge
of the exercise. The United States then retaliated by carrying out
its own strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
The initial Israeli attack was assessed to have set back the
Iranian nuclear program by roughly a year, and the subsequent U.S.
strikes did not slow the Iranian nuclear program by more than an
additional two years. However, other Pentagon planners have said
that the U.S. arsenal of long-range bombers, refueling aircraft and
precision missiles could do far more damage to the Iranian nuclear
program -- if President Barack Obama were to decide on a full-scale
retaliation.
The exercise was designed specifically to test internal military
communications and coordination among battle staffs in the Pentagon,
in Tampa, Florida, where the headquarters of the Central Command is
located, and in the Gulf in the aftermath of an Israeli strike. But
the exercise was written to assess a pressing, potential, real-
world situation.
In the end, the war game reinforced for military officials the
unpredictable and uncontrollable nature of a strike by Israel, and a
counterstrike by Iran, the officials said.
U.S. and Israeli intelligence services broadly agree on the
progress Iran has made to enrich uranium. But they disagree on how
much time there would be to prevent Iran from building a weapon if
leaders in Tehran decided to go ahead with one.
With the Israelis saying publicly that the window to prevent Iran
