HispanicBusiness

Comerica Bank's chief economist forecast Wednesday that the growth in manufacturing jobs in the Detroit area "will level out in the year ahead."

"Manufacturing is a productivity-driven industry and that fundamental force will reassert itself, leading to flat or even declining manufacturing employment even as output increases," Robert Dye wrote in his Detroit regional economic update.

Metro Detroit has gained 32,000 manufacturing jobs since the recession ended in June 2009.

In his report, Dye noted that the Detroit area had about 225,000 unemployed workers as of November, which translates into an 11.2 percent unemployment rate. With job growth of just 22,000 over the year ending in November, "prospects for near-term re-employment of most of the unemployed look dim," he said.

Dye also warned that the region could face increased population loss as many unemployed workers and their families find work in other states. From 2000 to 2010, the Detroit area's population fell by 151,000 people.

Though the region's economy is stabilizing, Dye expects home prices "to remain soft well into 2013." The Federal Housing Finance Agency house price index for Detroit peaked in the third quarter of 2005 and has dropped 35 percent since then. The U.S. FHFA house price index has declined 16 percent since peaking in the first quarter of 2007.

In a positive sign for the local economy, the Southeast Michigan Purchasing Managers Index, a key economic indicator, jumped sharply in January, rising to 65.9 from 47.6 in December. An index above 50 indicates an expanding economy.

The index showed increases in production, new orders, inventories and employment.