Marc Andreessen, one of Silicon Valley's most influential venture capitalists,
is tired of all the chatter about a social-media bubble. In fact, he claimed
Wednesday in a talk in New York City that the nation is in a "tech
depression," with stock investors punishing market leaders like Apple (AAPL)
and Google (GOOG).
Andreessen, who co-founded Netscape and more recently launched venture
firm Andreessen Horowitz, said at The New York Times Dealbook conference that
if there was such a bubble, "it was a bubble that was limited to four
companies," according to Reuters.
Andreessen didn't name the companies, and his firm didn't immediately
respond to a message from this newspaper seeking clarification. But a year ago
the valley was abuzz that Groupon, Zynga and Facebook -- into all of which
Andreessen's firm put money -- would see their initial public offerings soar.
That, in turn, sparked high-flying valuations for other private companies that
came back to earth once those IPOs flopped.
"The public right now hates technology," Andreessen griped. He said
technology stocks are undervalued compared with other sectors and that some
pundits believe longtime tech leaders are "doomed."
Other experts aren't so sure.
"I'd be depressed, too, if I was stuck on HP's board," valley futurist
Paul Saffo quipped about Andreessen, who serves on the boards of
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Facebook. "But there are companies out there whose
stocks are doing just fine in the tech sector. People are still starting
companies."
And with tech spending forecast to grow 5 to 7 percent in the new year,
"That by no measure is a depression," said Crawford Del Prete, head of
worldwide research for market intelligence firm IDC.
Still, Andreessen isn't the only tech investor frustrated by the pace of
things. Roger McNamee of Menlo Park's Elevation Partners -- like Andreessen's
firm, an investor in Skype and Facebook -- told Bloomberg News on Wednesday
that Microsoft, Yahoo (YHOO) and Google aren't doing enough to innovate.
At the same time, McNamee pronounced himself "flabbergasted by the way
the markets value stocks," noting that Apple and those other behemoths are
"selling at a huge discount to the S&P 500."
Brian Marshall, who heads the technology team at investment research firm
ISI Group, said he also agrees with Andreessen -- to a point.
"Sentiment on tech is horrible now," Marshall said via email. But, he
added, that makes him feel bullish for 2013, when he sees the tech industry
delivering better financial results and creating room for depressed stocks to
soar.
Lise Buyer, a consultant in Woodside who advises companies on the IPO
process, said she's had plenty of clients kicking the tires on going public.
"Marc is as smart as they come, but in this case he must be looking at a
subset of the data," she said.
While she acknowledged that investors are particularly cautious right now
with the fiscal cliff and possible tax hikes looming, she said less-risky
stocks like those of cloud computing companies -- which make money by locking
customers into recurring subscriptions -- are trading at solid prices compared
with their earnings.
"It doesn't look like a desert to me," Buyer said.
Distributed by MCT Information Services
