Natural gas by 2025 will overtake coal as the
world's second-largest fuel source and transform North America into a
net energy exporter, according to long-term projections issued
Tuesday by ExxonMobil.
In its projection of energy sector trends through 2040, the
world's largest oil company estimates that global energy demand will
rise by 35 per cent by 2040, with the increase coming overwhelmingly
from high-growth developing and emerging nations, and much of it in
China and India.
"This economic growth is a good news story," said William Colton,
ExxonMobil vice president of corporate strategic planning, as he
presented the updated annual outlook at the Centre for Strategic and
International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
The rising energy consumption will enable living standards to
continue to rise for people worldwide, he said: "The world runs on
energy."
The growth in demand will be matched by technological developments
to increase efficiency, which the outlook predicts will meet most of
the increase in demand over the coming decades.
"The greatest source of energy for the future is continuing to use
it more efficiently," the report stated.
With the technology already in place, exploitation of natural gas
will provide for much of the increasing energy needs, according to
the outlook.
Natural gas is both abundant in North America and the most
economical choice considering proposed carbon taxes in the United
States.
Kenneth Cohen, ExxonMobil vice president for public and government
affairs, said that the company would not oppose carbon taxation if it
were aimed to curb carbon emissions, rather than purely a revenue
instrument.
The outlook projects global carbon emissions to level off around
2030.
In European and North American countries, which belong to the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),
emissions are already declining due to improving efficiency and the
shift to natural gas. Emissions in those countries are to go down 20
per cent by 2040.
In emerging and developing non-OECD countries, such as India and
China, emissions will rise by 50 per cent in the next two decades
before plateauing.
With crude oil remaining the world's top fuel source - followed in
the future by natural gas - the ExxonMobil report dismisses the idea
that renewable energy can be a sole or even competitive source.
"Wind and solar energy will grow, but it will be underpinned by
the government, because otherwise they are not economic," Colton
said.
ExxonMobil is the world's largest publicly traded energy company.
The company is the world's largest oil refiner and owns petrol
retailers Exxon, Mobil and Esso.
