Rest easy, Nevada. We're still a battleground state.
At least so say political operatives on both sides of the aisle.
Admittedly, they may have a bit of a vested interest in saying so.
Presidential battleground status opens the spigot to tens of millions of
advertising dollars.
By the last count compiled by The Washington Post, $54 million was spent
on Nevada airwaves to influence the presidential election here this year --
that's about $53 per vote cast here.
But some are questioning whether Tuesday's results support the claim that
Nevada's six electoral votes are worth fighting over anymore.
President Barack Obama last week won Nevada convincingly for the second
time. In fact, his margins in 2008 and 2012 far exceeded former President
George W. Bush's Nevada margins in 2000 and 2004.
Democrats have 90,000 more registered voters than Republicans. They have
a well-financed party structure in place -- an organization noticeably absent
on the Republican side. And they have control of the state Legislature.
Some might say that doesn't sound like the metrics of a true swing state.
Indeed, it's starting to sound a lot like New Mexico -- previously a
battleground state before turning convincingly blue beginning about four years
ago and disappearing from the presidential campaign radar screen.
Is Nevada in danger of becoming the dreaded flyover state that the
presidential contenders pass by in between campaign stops in Colorado and
fundraising stops in California?
Republicans, with a tinge of apprehension in their voices, say: Not yet.
"This is the bluest purple state in the country," said Mac Abrams, U.S.
Sen. Dean Heller's campaign manager. "But we're still a purple state."
Perhaps Heller's victory is an indication of that. The Republican barely
defeated Democrat Shelley Berkley, whose campaign was hamstrung from the
beginning by a House ethics investigation.
But Republicans also point to the fact that Nevada's most popular
politician, Gov. Brian Sandoval, is a Republican. The party represents half of
Nevada's congressional delegation. And although the GOP narrowly lost an
attempted takeover of the state Senate, the number of voters statewide backing
a Republican candidate for the Legislature almost equaled the number of voters
backing a Democratic candidate.
"Yes, we're still a battleground state," Republican strategist Robert
Uithoven said. "However, we need to do significant work within the Republican
Party to keep it a battleground state."
And that's where the argument becomes more than just how much
battleground status increases the bottom lines for television station owners.
If Republican presidential contenders cede Nevada, they're pretty much
handing it over to the Democrats. And that's not necessarily good for
Republican candidates down ticket.
"At this point, it's the Republicans' responsibility to keep us a
battleground state," Uithoven reiterated.
Democrats aren't about to take Nevada for granted, either.
"Clearly it's more Democratic than it used to be," one Democratic
operative said. "I think you can call it a Democratic-leaning state, but I
personally feel less confident about calling it a solidly blue state.
"I don't think we're there yet. And Democrats have to be careful not to
go down the same flawed path Nevada Republicans went down."
Just a decade ago, Republicans were the powerful party in Nevada.
Democrats had no party structure to rely on, held only one statewide office
and seemed unable to wrest control of the state Senate away from the
Republicans.
The story is a cautionary indication that the political balance of power
in Nevada can easily execute an about-face.
So will Nevada voters have the same level of television ads, robo-calls
and door knocks to complain about again in four years?
"I think they will," the Democratic operative said. "If either side takes
Nevada for granted, I think they do it at their own peril."
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News Column
Has Nevada Gone Blue?
Nov. 12, 2012
Anjeanette Damon, Las Vegas Sun
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Source: (c)2012 Las Vegas Sun (Las Vegas, Nev.) Distributed by MCT Information Services
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