U.S. President Barack Obama can barely say "Hola,
buenos dias" in Spanish, but in recent days he has even ventured into
making an advert in that language: he spoke for only 31 seconds and
sounded quite wooden, but it will have to do.
First Lady Michelle Obama will not even go that far, but she has
also ventured into an an ad targeting Hispanics, in which popular
Cuban-American journalist Cristina Saralegui asks her in Spanish,
"Why is it so important for Latinos to vote in this election?"
Michelle Obama answers in English, with Spanish subtitles.
According to The New York Times, the Democratic Party has spent
almost twice as much as its Republican rival on campaign ads in
Spanish: 8.9 million dollars, compared to 4.6 million dollars.
At first sight, it could seem strange that the Democrats are
willing to devote so much effort and money to a minority which may be
the largest and the fastest-growing in the country but is still not
the biggest in terms of votes.
Indeed, opinion polls have unequivocally shown that Hispanic
voters strongly favour the Democrats by as much as 3 to 1.
An opinion poll made public by the National Association of Latino
Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) concluded that a record 12.2
million Hispanics could go to the polls on Tuesday, 26 per cent more
than four years ago when they had already attained a record level.
Still, this amounts to about half the total of 23.7 million
Hispanics who are entitled to vote, and even that figure is just 11
per cent of all US citizens with the right to cast a ballot.
According to NALEO, the proportion of Hispanics who actually turn
up to vote will not amount to more than 8.7 per cent of the total
ballots cast.
So why all this effort?
The answer deals not so much with how many votes are at stake but
with where those votes actually are cast. The interesting thing about
the Latino vote is that it appears likely to be crucial in the swing
states that will decide the election, especially Colorado, Florida
and Nevada, but also Virginia, Iowa or even North Carolina.
In 2008, the Latino population in those states strongly favoured
Obama: 61 per cent in Colorado, 57 per cent in Florida and 76 per
cent in Nevada, a state in which the Hispanic vote was again crucial
two years later for the Democrats to hold on to their majority in the
Senate.
According to the swing state opinion polls carried out by Latino
Decisions over the month prior to the election, the figures could
even increase this year in favour of the Democratic incumbent in
those key states and others.
The lot becomes even more relevant when the number of Hispanic
voters in those states amounts to a substantial proportion of local
residents entitled to vote: 16 per cent in Florida, 15 per cent in
Nevada and 14 per cent in Colorado, according to the Pew Hispanic
Center.
The case of Florida, which has proved critical in recent
elections, is particularly interesting since the local Hispanic
population, which has traditionally been dominated by pro-Republican
Cuban-Americans, is now being balanced by Puerto Ricans, who are more
likely to vote for the Democrats.
In that state, where until 2002 there were more Hispanic voters
registered as Republicans than as Democrats (37-33 per cent), the
tables have turned and by 2008 the Democrats were in the lead (38-30
per cent).
The vote of minorities such as Latinos could become more vital if
the recent trend spotted by opinion polls, according to which Obama
is losing support among white voters, is confirmed. If that is the
case, the incumbent would need to compensate with votes from other
groups if he wants to beat his Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
Obama himself admitted in recent days that he potentially has a
lot to thank Hispanic voters for.
"I will just be very blunt. Should I win a second term, a big
reason I will win a second term is because the Republican nominee and
the Republican Party have so alienated the fastest-growing
demographic group in the country, the Latino community," he told the
Iowa daily Des Moines Register.
