News Column

Presidential Race Tightens, with Finish Line in Sight

October 10, 2012

By Jackie Kucinich, and Gregory Korte

Obama - Romney

New polls released Tuesday show Mitt Romney's debate bounce has brought him even, or in some cases, carried him past President Obama -- shifts that reiterated what has been the one constant through the 2012 election: The race is one of the closest in history.

For the first time since last October -- when a head-to-head Romney-Obama matchup was still hypothetical -- Romney is leading Obama in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. The advantage: a slim 0.7 percentage points.

Both the Obama and Romney campaigns said they expected the polls to shift and the race to tighten in the final weeks before Election Day.

"I know that a week ago, when polls were showing a different result, we were being questioned about the state of the race," Romney senior adviser Eric Fehrnstrom told NBC News. "Our advice was to simply caution everybody to be patient, that there's going to be a lot of ups and downs in this campaign, but it's going to be tight right up until the end."

Obama campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters, "We're going to run like we're 5 points down, no matter what the polls say."

Romney's improvement in the polls is due in part to changes in methodology. As the campaign enters the final month, Gallup's daily tracking poll switches from counting registered voters to those most likely to show up on or before Election Day, based on a seven-question screen Gallup has used, in some version, since 1952.

Among those voters, Romney leads 49% to 46%, with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, Gallup said.

Republicans always have a cultural advantage in likely voters, said Gallup pollster Frank Newport. "That's why we say rain is the Republican's best friend," because it is more likely to keep Democratic voters away on Election Day. Looking at registered voters, the fundamentals of the race haven't changed much from a week ago: It was close before, and it's close now.

"There was definitely momentum or gains by Romney coming out of the debate, and the question now is whether it lasts or dissipates," he said. "It's a little early to know definitively. We need a few more days."

"The upward trend is always a good sign for Gov. Romney," said Republican National Committee Political Director Rick Wiley.

Wiley said while the daily tracking polls tend to be "all over the place," the current set showed Americans liked what they saw during last Wednesday night's debate.

The polls that matter most are in battleground states with electoral votes up for grabs, and a CNN/ORC International poll showed the race tightening in the critical battleground of Ohio. Obama still leads Romney 51% to 47% among likely voters in the poll, conducted Oct. 5-8 and released Tuesday -- but it's now within the margin of error. Prior to the debate, polls showed Obama leading by 7 to 10 points in the Buckeye State.

Ohio isn't the only state where the race is tightening. A recent poll in Michigan by EPIC-MRA showed Obama led Romney 48% to 45%, a far cry from the president's previous lead of 10 points. Obama held a 49%-46% lead in a Fox News 2 Detroit poll published Tuesday that was conducted two days after the first debate.

Saul Anuzis, a former Michigan GOP chairman, said the race would be close until Nov. 6 and said the positive polling in swing states plays "into the narrative that's important to activists and volunteers."

The University of Cincinnati's Eric Rademacher, co-director of the Ohio Poll, said: "Ohio is closely divided along partisan lines. Both campaigns understand that a strong turnout push -- both by absentee ballot and at the polls on Election Day -- could tip Ohio's electoral votes in their favor."

Both candidates were in the state Tuesday.

When asked whether Romney would move more resources to Michigan and Pennsylvania as a result of the narrowing polls, Romney political director Rich Beeson said, "I don't want to pull back the curtain on what our strategy would be, but it looks like the Obama campaign has even more real estate to defend than they did a week ago."

Source: Copyright USA TODAY 2012

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