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South Korea's finance ministry
and financial watchdog shifted into emergency mode Monday in a
bid to minimize fallout on local markets from North Korean
leader Kim Jong-il's death, officials said.
The Ministry of Strategy and Finance and the Financial
Services Commission (FSC) set up 24-hour emergency teams to
respond quickly to potential developments that could arise and
fuel public and market concerns, they said.
Because of the importance of international cooperation,
contact channels have been opened with countries including the
United States, Japan and members of the G20's systemically
important industrialized and developing economies, the ministry
said, adding close tabs are being kept on all developments that
could impact the economy.
"Seoul is monitoring all changes, carefully analyzing their
implications and what appropriate actions are needed to cope
with the situation," Finance Minister Bahk Jae-wan said in a
press release issued after the announcement of Kim Jong-il's
death at noon.
He added that real-time monitoring of both overseas and
domestic economic developments are underway, with the
government reviewing its contingency plan set up to cope with
any emergency situations occurring in North Korea.
"The plan currently under review and has not been put in
place since from an economic standpoint, the current situation
is not yet a crisis," he said.
South Korea's top economic policymaker said the government
plans to take active steps to deal with any changes that may
occur, adding Seoul will strengthen its ties with international
credit rating agencies to prevent concern about a drop in
overseas credibility.
Bahk urged the public to continue ordinary economic
activities, saying they should not be affected in any way by
the death, and that there is no real reason to horde emergency
goods and food.
"There have been many past cases involving escalation of
risks associated with North Korea, but all have had a limited
impact, so there is no reason to be overly concerned," the
policymaker claimed, stressing that Seoul had prepared for such
contingencies.
He added, however, that the latest development could raise
geopolitical uncertainties on the Korean Peninsula and make it
difficult to determine future developments.
The remarks come as both South Korea's benchmark KOSPI
plunged and the foreign exchange market was rocked by the
announcement of Kim's death.
The stock index dropped 63.03 points from the previous day
to close at 1,776.93 points, while the local currency tumbled
to 1,174.8 won against the U.S. dollar from 1,158.6 won on
Friday.
Kim's death is widely expected to fuel market uncertainties
and pose challenges for South Korea, which is still struggling
with global economic woes.
South Korea's economy, the fourth-largest in Asia, was
projected to grow 3.8 percent this year, down from 6.2 percent growth tallied in 2010.
The Financial Services Commission (FSC) said it also
established a response team that will help contain panic that
could arise in the market. It will operate around the clock and
respond quickly to any economic and financial changes that may
occur.
FSC Chairman Kim Seok-dong said problems in North Korea
could potentially pose serious challenges for South Korea's
economy and financial sector.
"Every effort will be made to review the financial market
and carefully monitor the local stock, bonds and movement of
foreign reserves," he stressed, adding Seoul will examine the
outflow or inflow of foreign capital.
Kim said that the FSC must be on guard for liquidity
shortfalls that could hurt businesses and will make certain
that local financial institutions continue to provide funds.
"The government and financial regulators must direct a calm
but firm message to the markets to ease jitters. They must also
call on the general populace to contain overreaction to the
death, even though there is no immediate evidence that the
economy will be seriously damaged by the North Korean leaders
death," he said. The chairman hinted, however, that the
financial regulator could take stringent emergency action to
counter potential market volatility if the need arises.
Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov. Kim Choong-soo also said at a
hastily convened meeting that every effort must be made to
check changes in the market and prevent uncertainties from
disrupting the economy.
He stressed that the BOK will work with other central banks
to exchange market-related information and implement
contingency plans in accordance with actions being taken by the
government.
Local economists, market watchers and policymakers said that
South Korea may experience prolonged uncertainties related to
consumer prices, stock prices and foreign exchange rates.
"There is no way to predict how the overall economy will
respond to the death," a local analyst said, while predicting
that fallout from the death may last for some time.
Others said that if there is a power struggle in North
Korea, it could affect South Korea's sovereign credit rating by
escalating geopolitical risks on the Korean Peninsula.
Such a development is feared to lead to financial sector
uncertainties that could negatively impact both consumer and
business sentiment.
"The death will definitely shock the economy in the short
term, but unlike other events including the nuclear tests (in
2006 and 2009) and armed confrontation between the two Koreas
that had limited long term effects, the latest incident may
cause problems for some time because of the power succession
issue," said a government official, who spoke on condition of
anonymity.
He also added, however, that there may not be a reason to
abruptly change Seoul's economic policy stance at present that
is geared up to handle the ongoing eurozone crisis.

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